时间：2018年10月24（星期三）13：30-14：30

地点：学院南路校区，中财大厦二层报告厅

报告题目：Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs

报告人：Sune Karlsson, Örebro University Business School

报告摘要：There is a fairly widespread claim that the fall in inflation as the Great Recessionhit the US economy was surprisingly small. We investigate one possible explanation for this, namely that the US Phillips curve is unstable over time and that its slope was lower than usual around the Great Recession. Our study is conducted using Bayesian VARs which are estimated on quarterly data from1990Q1 to 2017Q3. Relying on bivariate models for PCE inflation and the unemployment rate, we assess the importance of time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. Using new tools for model selection, we find support forboth of these features. We conclude that the Phillips curve has been unstable.Our results also indicate that it may have been somewhat flatter between 2005and 2013 than in the preceding decade. A conditional forecasting exercise suggests that inflation was not unexpectedly high around the Great Recession.

报告人简介：Professor Sune Karlsson obtained his PhD in economics from Purdue University in 1989. He was appointedas Associate Professor in Stockholm School of Economics. Professor Karlsson was appointed as Professor of Statistics, Örebro University School of Business. Heserved as  Dean, Faculty board of Business, Science and Engineering inÖrebro University.

Professor Sune Karlsson’s research interests includes econometrics, economic forecastingand Bayesian methodology.  He has published peer-reviewd papers in topjournals like International Journal of Forecasting, Journal ofEconometrics, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, and EconometricReviews.

Professor Sune Karlsson co-founded RePEc (Research Papers in Economics, http://repec.org/)in May 1997 and participated in development of underlying protocols and datastructures. He also develops software implementing core RePEc functionalities, edits the nep-ecm mailing list which provides information on new econometricsworking papers in RePEc. Nep-ecm is part of New Economic Papers (NEP,http://nep.repec.org/) current awareness service and operates the EconPapers service(http://econpapers.repec.org) which provides access to the RePEc data set, the largest collection of on-line working papers and journal articles in Economics.

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